The most recent article "Lower Volume Trading Range" showed SPX held the cyclical bull market low, intermediate-term technical indicators may have bottomed, and an SPX 1,246 to 1,290 range may take place in July. However, the possibility of a rise above 1,290 should be taken into account.

The two charts below show daily SPX (right scales and candlesticks) and daily NYSE Oscillator (NYMO; left scales and green lines) in 2004 and currently with SPX 50 and 200-day MAs. NYMO closed above 72 on Monday, which is the highest level since early-June 2004.

The first chart shows SPX topped in March 2004 at 1,163 and began a volatile downtrend. The second chart shows SPX topped in May 2006 at 1,326 and also began a downtrend. The gray arrow in the 2004 chart may indicate SPX movements over the next month. The first two weeks of July tend to be bullish. So, it's possible, SPX may rally into earnings season, stay high, and sell on the FOMC anouncement August 8th. A short-squeeze may be triggered above 1,290 with upside potential to around 1,310.

However, there are major differences between the 2004 and current charts. When the 2004 NYMO rose above 80, it began below negative 100 (both the high and low were historical extremes), while the current rise began slightly below negative 50. Also, SPX rose above the 50-day MA on the first bounce after the top in 2004. However, SPX failed to reach the 50-day MA on the first bounce after the top in 2006.

Over the 2004 downtrend, SPX made lower highs. So, 1,290 continues to be major resistance, and the 1,246 to 1,290 range may take place in July. Nonetheless, a sharp rise above 1,290 should be taken into account. Also, the charts indicate SPX will be much lower within three months, and SPX may bottom in October or sooner, perhaps below 1,200.

Free charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast category.